shosty real estate  / Iran Conflict Monitor
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Methodology

How the data is sourced, calculated, and interpreted. Last updated: March 17, 2026.

Contents
  1. Data source and coverage
  2. Baseline window — why Jan 6, not Jan 1
  3. Rental volume calculation
  4. Ready sales volume — weekly averages and the DLD batch pattern
  5. Off-plan exclusion
  6. Rental and sales prices — the selection effect
  7. Sales pipeline timing
  8. Community segmentation and daily averages
  9. Ramadan overlap

Data source and coverage

All rental and sales transaction data is sourced from ReidIN, a licensed DLD (Dubai Land Department) data portal. ReidIN provides access to the full official DLD register of rental contracts and property sales transactions.

Data typeSourceCoverage
Rental contractsReidIN — DLD rental registerJan 1 – Mar 14, 2026 (~146,000 rows)
Ready salesReidIN — DLD sales registerJan 1 – Mar 15, 2026 (~12,000 rows)
ReidIN export behaviour: exports are incremental, not cumulative. Each download covers only the selected date range. New data files are merged with previous files — not used to replace them — to maintain full history.

Only residential property transactions are included. Off-plan sales are excluded from conflict-period analysis (see Section 5).

Baseline window — why Jan 6, not Jan 1

The pre-conflict baseline is January 6 – February 27, 2026 (53 days).

The first week of January is anomalously low due to the New Year holiday lag. Including this period would artificially depress the pre-conflict average and overstate the conflict impact.

January 6 was selected as the first full trading week. The baseline ends February 27 (the day before the conflict started on February 28).

Summary: Baseline = Jan 6 – Feb 27 = 53 days. Post-conflict = Feb 28 onwards.

Rental volume calculation

Rental contract volumes are expressed as daily averages within each window:

Pre-conflict daily avg = total contracts in baseline ÷ 53
Post-conflict daily avg = total contracts post-Feb 28 ÷ number of days elapsed
% change = (post avg − pre avg) / pre avg × 100

Using daily averages (rather than raw totals) is essential because the baseline period (53 days) and the growing post-conflict window have different lengths.

Historical bug (fixed Mar 16, 2026): An earlier version compared raw totals rather than daily averages. This produced community-level declines of ~80% when the correct figure was ~30–40%. All figures now use daily averages.

Ready sales volume — weekly averages and the DLD batch pattern

DLD registers ready sales in weekday batches. Weekend days show near-zero volumes, weekdays spike.

Day of weekTypical volume
Saturday / Sunday1–22 transactions
Monday–Friday83–183 transactions

The correct approach is weekly averages on complete weeks only:

Pre-conflict: 6 complete weeks (Jan 12 – Feb 22) = avg 1,187 transactions/week
Post-conflict: 2 complete weeks (Mar 2 – Mar 15) = avg 655 transactions/week
Weekly average change: −45.1%
Caveat: Only 2 post-conflict weeks are available. Treat the −45.1% figure directionally.

Off-plan exclusion

Off-plan transactions are excluded from all conflict-period analysis on this dashboard.

Off-plan transactions have a DLD registration lag of 30–90 days from the point of agreement. Any off-plan data visible in the conflict window was agreed weeks or months before the conflict started.

Policy: Off-plan is excluded from all pre/post conflict comparisons. Ready transactions only.

Rental and sales prices — the selection effect

Both rental prices and sales prices per sqft show stable or slightly rising medians in the post-conflict period. This is counterintuitive given the volume collapse. The explanation is the selection effect.

What is the selection effect?

When demand contracts, the first movers to pause are marginal, budget-sensitive participants. The transactions that continue to complete are from more committed, above-market participants.

When the bottom of the distribution drops out, the median rises mechanically — not because prices went up, but because the cheapest transactions stopped happening.

Observed: Post-conflict rental median AED 73,000 vs pre-conflict AED 70,000 (+4.3%)
Interpretation: NOT landlords raising prices. Budget-sensitive movers paused.

Observed: Post-conflict sales median AED/sqft 1,500 vs pre-conflict 1,489 (+0.8%)
Interpretation: Same pattern. Cheapest transactions dropped out.

When will prices actually move?

The lag between a volume shock and a price correction is typically 3–6 months in the Dubai rental market and 4–8 weeks for seller repricing in the sales market.

Watch for: Rental new contract medians in the May–June data. If medians begin declining while volumes remain flat, price correction has started.

Sales pipeline timing

The DLD register reflects completed registrations, not agreements. A buyer who decides to purchase today will not appear in the DLD data for several weeks:

Transaction typeTypical DLD registration lagFirst post-conflict decisions visible
Cash sale~30–45 daysLate March 2026
Single-side mortgage~45–60 daysMid-April 2026
Double-side mortgage~60–75 daysLate April 2026
Off-plan developer registration30–90 days (batch)Excluded from analysis

The April dataset will provide the first clean read of genuinely post-conflict buyer decisions.

Community segmentation and daily averages

The community tracker uses daily averages per community, not raw totals.

Community pre-conflict avg/day = community total in baseline ÷ 53
Community post-conflict avg/day = community total post-Feb 28 ÷ post-conflict days

Community segments

SegmentCommunities
Prime ApartmentsDowntown Dubai, Dubai Marina, Palm Jumeirah, Business Bay, Dubai Creek Harbour, JBR
Mid-Tier ApartmentsJVC, JVT, Al Furjan, Dubai Sports City, Dubai Silicon Oasis, Arjan
ValueInternational City, Discovery Gardens, Town Square, Damac Hills 2, Dubai South, Liwan
VillasArabian Ranches, Jumeirah Golf Estates, Tilal Al Ghaf, Damac Hills, The Springs, Dubai Hills Estate

Majan is excluded from the community tracker — a known anomalous bulk registration event.

Ramadan overlap

Ramadan 2026 began February 18 — ten days before the conflict started on February 28. The post-conflict period and Ramadan overlap almost entirely.

The observed volume decline is likely a combination of conflict-driven caution and Ramadan seasonality. It is not possible to cleanly separate the two with this dataset.

How the dashboard handles this: The Ramadan period is shaded on the rental volume chart. The April data (post-Ramadan) will provide the first conflict-only read.

If volumes do not rebound by mid-April, the conflict effect is clearly dominant.